Time for a peace plan on Ukraine

Europe, the whole world, is going through a difficult period. The seemingly endless war in Ukraine has a huge impact on society, in Ukraine, in Russia, throughout Europe and worldwide. Militarism is on the rise. Energy and food prices have been increasing. Purchasing power is falling and poverty is increasing. But many extra billions are going to weapons. The US is very open about the purpose of massive arms deliveries to Ukraine. It is not so much about ending the war quickly, but about weakening Russia.

As a peace movement, our actions have denounced and condemned Russian aggression against Ukraine. In Russia, conservative, nationalistic and militaristic forces are in power. Forces that symbolize just about everything the peace movement fights against. We say unequivocally to those responsible in Moscow: stop the war machine!

The peace movement works for disarmament, demilitarization, peaceful coexistence and human security. That is also why we refuse to go along with a black-and-white vision of a complex reality. This is not a war of good against evil. In Ukraine in 2014, a nationalist conflict degenerated into an open war, with superpowers fighting a second-level battle for hegemony with economic interests at stake, control over access to markets, raw materials, supply lines and geopolitical power. That was the stakes in World War I; that is also the stakes today.

That is why the peace movement must continue to fight hard against the driving forces behind war, behind all wars. More than ever, the military industrial complex is exploiting war to dramatically militarize Europe. This is far from being about merely building a military defence. What is at play is that a Western economic bloc is positioning and preparing for a long battle with what NATO calls „systemic rivals”.

Meanwhile Ukraine’s 1-month-old offensive against Russian occupation forces is, according to senior Western officials, “not meeting expectations on any front.“ In recent weeks, the Ukrainian army captured a few villages and around 130 km² of territory over a frontline of as much as 2,500 km. The Russian defences do not appear to be easily breached due to the massive presence of landmines, well entrenched troops and Russian air superiority. In short, it should not be said too loudly, but the long-announced Ukrainian offensive may well end in failure. A failure does not fit the playbook because it could affect Western readiness for massive military support. That things are not going as desired can also be concluded from a statement by Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: „It’s going to be very long, and it’s going to be very, very bloody. And no one should have any illusions about any of that.“

The mentality as outlined by Milley is reminiscent of World War I: a few miles of territorial gain, is worth thousands of lives. Politicians and generals write the script, the soldiers in the trenches provide the cannon fodder fuelled by the illusion of a „heroic“ military victory that, in reality, bogs down in a months-long stalemate.

This war cannot be won, in any of the three possible war scenarios. Either it remains a stalemate at the cost of thousands of human lives and continuous destructions, or Russia advances with an even more disadvantageous negotiating position for Ukraine than today, or Kiev wins the war, but then we risk the deployment of nuclear weapons or the dangerous consequences of a destabilized nuclear force. None of these scenarios will lead to peace, and those same countries that now arm Ukraine to the teeth will not give in when the billions are needed to rebuild the country.

In other words, the military logic of this war does not offer attractive outcomes. The longer the war in Ukraine continues the greater the suffering and damage to the country.

Nevertheless, calls for a cease-fire and negotiations are surrounded by taboos. Proponents are accused of playing into Putin’s hands. Others express scepticism that Putin does not want peace or is unreliable. There may be a ground of truth in that, but there is no alternative given the military scenarios just outlined. And there is precedent. By the end of March 2022, under Turkish mediation, Kiev and Moscow were well advanced in concluding a framework agreement that, however, did not receive support from London and Washington, which preferred the military option.

A growing understanding that the war is hopeless could create the diplomatic space for a cease-fire and negotiations. Agreeing a lasting peace deal will take time, but time can also generate reasonableness and political will if only the weapons remain silent. The Good Friday Agreement which laid the foundation for peace in Northern Ireland came after many years of hopeless violence.

There are many possible ingredients for a package deal covering all layers of the violent conflict. A future agreement should be aimed at 1. ending the Russian invasion 2. responding to the internal nationalist causes of the war that began in the Donbas in 2014 and 3. resolving geopolitical tensions between NATO/EU and Russia based on respect for mutual security interests.

The war is a great challenge to the peace movement that seems divided and unable to weigh politics. In time this will change, and it will be realized that the politics of war is hopeless and bankrupt. Therefore, the peace movement must knock on the same nail each time: push for a cease-fire followed by negotiations aimed at a just, but also lasting peace. Militarization and a new arms race come at the expense of necessary environmental and social investments. Tensions between militarized blocs prevent swift action to save our planet from climate change, address unsustainable inequality and poverty, and avert the nuclear weapons threat. We need a new security system that is people-centred, inclusive and based on respect for mutual security interests, on common security.

The peace movement must further convince unions and other social organizations that our interests converge and thus we must wage this struggle for peace and social justice together.